Nine to 12 million people could be living below poverty lines after severe flood loss and estimated $28 billion in damage. 1.8-2 million jobs have been lost in the flood. It will take two to ten years to reconstruct flood-affected areas. The inflation rate may reach 23-25 percent.
Furthermore, Against the target of 3.9 percent, agriculture growth will fall by -0.7 to -2.1 percent for the current fiscal. Exports may lose $3 billion. $5.9 billion was the most damaged province. Balochistan has $3.04 billion. AJK lost $0.02 billion, KPK $0.54 billion.
Moreover, Planning Commission Chief Economist presents this data. A global donor list. Losses total $10.09 billion. Federal ministries and divisions face $2.9 billion in losses. Rails, housing, national highway authority, Pakistan Post, and water ministry losses total $2.4 billion.
Flood loss
Flood Protection Plan (IV) requires $4 billion. Losses of $11 billion. The total is $28 billion. Among the crops affected are grains such as rice, maize, cotton, and sugarcane. Major crops will grow 14-15.4%. Others will decline (12-15%). Thousands of animals have died. Livestock growth is now 2.7%-3.7%.
In contrast to 3.9 percent, agriculture expected to lose 3.5-4.5%. Manufacturing growth will be reduced by 3.5-4 percent. Cotton availability is decreasing, resulting in lower textile growth. Automobile and fertilizer demand will also decline.
Forecasts for FY 2023 are 1.9-2.5% growth. We’re targeting 3% growth instead of 6.5%. Crop, livestock, road, and railroad damage will reduce growth to 3% instead of 4.5%. Tourism also suffers.
Services growth is expected to be 3-3.5% in FY 2023. Inflation will be further exacerbated by shortages of perishable items.
Moreover, NPMC continuously monitors the situation. Import decisions have eased SPI. Further inflationary pressure expected to be dissipated. It expected that average inflation for FY23 will remain between 22 and 25%.
Global demand declines and lower exports of rice, cotton, fruits and vegetables will lead to export losses of $3 billion in FY23. The floods will increase imports of cotton, wheat, and vegetables. Lower oil imports expected due to water availability.
A lower GDP growth and income level will also result in a lower import bill. In FY23, GDP growth expected to be around 1.82-2.3% compared with 5% in FY22.
